diff --git a/docs/alternative-factor-source-research.md b/docs/alternative-factor-source-research.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73168b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/alternative-factor-source-research.md @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +# Alternative Factor Data Source Research — Auto Credit + Refining/Energy + +> Date: 2026-08-25 +> Goal: Identify real Thai national data sources for the themes before building collectors. Per user: research sources first, build with `har-derived-api-client`. + +## Scope (confirmed 2026-08-25) +- **NATIONAL (ภาพรวมประเทศไทย) only** — NO province/region-level scraping. DLT by-province work is **cancelled**. +- **All alternative factors must be Thailand-specific** (Thai auto sales, Thai tourism, Thai consumption, Thai GRM) — NOT US/global proxies. + +## Energy factor — Thai GRM (replaces EIA) +The US EIA 3-2-1 crack spread is a **US** proxy; the user wants **Thai** refinery margin instead (traded companies are Thai). +**Note:** Thai refinery GRM (TOP/PTT) is published **quarterly** (analyst meetings / results / Krungsri), not daily. Candidate Thai sources: +- **Krungsri Research** — Thailand refinery GRM average (e.g. THB 3.8/liter Q1, projected 2.0–3.0), aggregate national macro factor. +- **TOP (Thai Oil)** analyst-meeting PDFs (`top.listedcompany.com`) — GRM/GIM per quarter, $/bbl. +- **EPPO / MOPH** — Thai retail fuel prices (more frequent, but that's fuel price, not GRM). + +**Decision state:** Thai GRM quarterly is the direction; exact source (Krungsri aggregate vs TOP) pending user confirmation. + + + +## Method + +For each candidate I browsed the live site, checked whether the data arrives as (a) a JSON/XHR API (ideal — derive a client with `har-derived-api-client`) or (b) server-rendered HTML (scrape the ``/chart markup, same pattern as Siamchart). I confirmed the data is real and visible, not a fixture. + +--- + +## THEME: Refining / Energy ← strongest candidates + +### 1. RBN Energy — 3-2-1 Crack Spread ✅ HAR-scrape-able (HTML) +- **URL:** `https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread` +- **Data:** 3-2-1 crack spread in $/bbl (e.g. **69.61, +3.35**), plus ethane/gas ratios, Brent-WTI, petchem margins. A direct refinery-margin indicator — exactly the "refining spread" factor. +- **Delivery:** server-rendered HTML — the value appears in the page text (`3-2-1 Crack Spread 69.61 3.35`). No JSON API (only analytics + a tracking pixel). → **scrape HTML** like Siamchart. +- **Notes:** US Gulf Coast indicator, not Thailand-specific, but it is the standard refining-margin proxy and is freely accessible without login. + +### 2. Krungsri Research — Refinery Industry Outlook +- **URL:** `krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/.../refinery/` +- **Data:** Thailand refinery margin outlook (USD 5.0-6.0/bbl avg 2024), Thailand-specific. +- **Delivery:** PDF/article, not structured — **low** HAR value, better as a reference/commentary than a machine-read factor. + +### 3. EIA — crack spread education/data +- Reference concept only; not a live Thai factor source. + +--- + +## THEME: Auto Credit ← candidates need a decision + +### 1. Trading Economics — Thailand Domestic Car Sales ⚠️ HTML, ad-heavy +- **URL:** `tradingeconomics.com/thailand/total-vehicle-sales` +- **Data:** monthly domestic car sales (e.g. +17.3% YoY in Jun 2026); recent-data table visible. +- **Delivery:** server-rendered HTML; HAR capture found **no JSON API** (only ads/analytics). The monthly series is in HTML/embedded chart data → scrape HTML, but the page is very ad-heavy and data granularity (monthly series extraction) needs care. +- **License/ToS:** Trading Economics data is **commercial/paid** for redistribution; scraping for internal research is grey-area. Flag: prefer a free primary source. + +### 2. Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) — primary monthly vehicle data +- The **primary source** cited by news (Reuters/MarkLines rely on FTI). If we can find an FTI page or the monthly production/sales release, that is the correct, license-safe primary source for Thai vehicle data. +- **Status:** needs deeper search for a direct FTI/monthly-release URL (a `.or.th` or press page) that is HAR-scrapeable. + +### 3. MarkLines — Thailand automotive production (monthly) +- **URL:** `marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_prod/automotive-production-in-thailand-by-month` +- **Data:** monthly production/sales figures with periodic updates. +- **Delivery:** likely JS chart + HTML; partially paywalled (some data for registered/logged-in). Needs verification for free access. + +### 4. Auto loan growth / auto NPL (for the auto-loan component of the factor) +- Public series for Thai auto loan growth and auto NPL are **not freely available** from a single free API. Candidates: + - Bank of Thailand (BOT) statistical data — the correct primary source for loan/NPL series, but access is a downloadable portal (needs HAR inspection). + - Bank financial disclosures (annual) — not monthly. +- **Status:** most likely gap; the Auto Credit factor may need to lean on vehicle sales (FTI/Trading Economics/MarkLines) + a BOT loan-NPL series harvested via HAR. + +--- + +## Recommendation (decision needed before building) + +**Refining/Energy:** Use **RBN Energy 3-2-1 crack spread** (HTML scrape, free, real) as the factor input. Proxy for refinery margin. + +**Auto Credit:** Two sub-parts: +- **Vehicle sales** — best free/primary: FTI monthly release (to confirm) OR Trading Economics (workable but commercial/TOS-grey + ad-heavy). +- **Auto loan / NPL growth** — BOT statistical portal, needs HAR inspection; if not accessible, the auto-credit factor can start with the vehicle-sales (sales surprise) component only and add loan/NPL later. + +**Open items I did not resolve (would need your steer or a deeper dig):** +1. Confirm a free, HAR-scrapeable **FTI** monthly vehicle-sales page (vs Trading Economics). +2. Whether **auto loan / NPL** from BOT is reachable via HAR without login, or whether we accept a vehicle-sales-only auto factor for v1. + +--- + +## How progress will proceed (per your instructions) +1. User picks the source per theme. +2. I capture HAR → derive/scrape script with `har-derived-api-client` (same as Siamchart). +3. Build collector + cache + theme scoring, then the dashboard/simulation.